Behind the Headlines

Our Predictions for 2015

Stephen Leeb
Friday, January 2, 2015

As we enter 2015, we think a case can be made that the next 12 to 24 months will go down in history as the most important in the history of capitalism and the West. As it stands now we think—and desperately hope we are wrong—that the period immediately ahead will be one in which the East establishes itself as at least equal and probably more than equal to the West. It could easily be a time in which the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency clearly become limited. And it may be a period, as we explain below, in which that ever-narrow tight rope the West has walked between inflation... Read more about Our Predictions for 2015

How to Profit from Trough in Oil

Stephen Leeb
Monday, December 8, 2014

The sharp fall in oil prices engineered by Saudi Arabia will likely be fairly short lived, and indeed sets the stage for the next major rally in oil prices. Though oil prices could stay at or well below recent levels for at least another 6 to 9 months, within the next 12 to 18 months, odds look much better than 50-50 that oil will spike closer to all-time highs than languish at current prices. The Saudi actions will have significant short- and longer-term economic and political implications; these could prove foundational vis-à-vis how to position your portfolio. Shorter term it brings us... Read more about How to Profit from Trough in Oil

Ditch and Switch: What Turmoil in Oil Means for Stocks

Stephen Leeb
Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Is the recent tumult in the energy sector a sign that investors should flee energy stocks? The quick answer is no. The turmoil does, however, give investors an opportunity to ditch some of the weaker and more poorly positioned players—mainly companies whose operations are concentrated in North America—and switch into the much stronger international entities.

In most cases this means shifting from producers to service companies and in particular getting out of companies in the business of domestic nonconventional oil production, aka the frackers. Even more critical to avoid are... Read more about Ditch and Switch: What Turmoil in Oil Means for Stocks

China's Continued Success-- 2 Possible Winners and a Potential Disaster

Stephen Leeb
Wednesday, October 15, 2014

China's growth this year, which could be around 7 percent, looks a bit lower than I expected. On the other hand, the country's 2013 and 2014 achievements paved a road toward rapid future growth that far exceeded my very high expectations. Given these facts, I think China's growth for the rest of this decade will likely exceed 7 percent, be much more balanced, give it complete hegemony in the Far East and bolster a currency increasingly able to rival or surpass the U.S. dollar as a worldwide reserve currency. For investors, the implications are enormous. I'll focus here on two potential... Read more about China's Continued Success-- 2 Possible Winners and a Potential Disaster

Energy Keeps Chasing Its Tail

Stephen Leeb
Monday, August 18, 2014

This summer gas prices on the East Coast hit the highest levels in six years, according to the EIA. In fact, for only the second time ever, average U.S. gas prices topped $3.75 a gallon.

It’s jarring that this comes despite two things that seemingly should lead to lower prices: huge gains in U.S. oil production and lower demand for energy because of more energy-efficient cars, appliances, and so on. In fact, according to BP, energy supplies worldwide—encompassing everything from oil to geothermal—have been rising by 2.5 percent a year since the century’s start, around the fastest... Read more about Energy Keeps Chasing Its Tail